Past super El Niño winters were much wetter than normal in New Orleans and, on average, no colder.
The three strongest since 1950 averaged 22.3 inches of rain from December through February, against NOAA’s normal of 14.13 inches, with fewer freezes, by NOAA’s daily records for the airport. NOAA’s forecasters lean wet for this winter without promising it.
For the wet weeks, you can book a private infrared sauna at NOLA Chill, 6045 Magazine Street in Uptown New Orleans, open 7 days and until 7 pm on weekdays: 45 minutes is $40 for one person or $64 for two, and 30 minutes is $30 or $48, paid after your visit. With the music off or low you can hear the rain on the roof from inside the room, loud in a hard rain, which is a good part of why we like it on days like these.
What the last three super El Niño winters did here
Three winters since 1950 reached the very strong level that forecasters call a super El Niño, 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, and NOAA’s daily records for New Orleans International Airport show what each one did. We counted those records for every winter since 1950, the first year NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center rates for El Niño strength, and this table sets the three beside a normal winter, the strong El Niño of 2023 to 2024 and last winter.
| Winter | Rain | Days with 1 inch or more | Nights at 32°F or colder |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 to 1983, super El Niño | 26.16 in | 9 | 6 |
| 1997 to 1998, super El Niño | 26.11 in | 9 | 1 |
| 2015 to 2016, super El Niño | 14.59 in | 7 | 0 |
| Average of the three | 22.3 in | 8.3 | 2.3 |
| Normal winter, 1991 to 2020 | 14.13 in | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| 2023 to 2024, strong El Niño | 21.75 in | 10 | 4 |
| 2025 to 2026, last winter | 9.49 in | 2 | 11 |
The rain normal is NOAA’s official 1991 to 2020 normal for the airport. The day and night counts for a normal winter are our average of the same 30 winters in the daily records. El Niño strength is NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index for December to February.
Wetter, mostly from heavy downpours
The extra rain in super El Niño winters came from heavier days rather than from more rainy days: the three had about 20 days with a tenth of an inch or more, close to the normal 19, but about twice the normal number of days with an inch or more. The two wettest days were 4.85 inches on February 1, 1983 and 4.70 inches on January 5, 1998.
The winters of 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998 rank fourth and fifth for winter rain at the airport out of the 76 since 1950, while 2015 to 2016 came in near normal at 14.59 inches. Four of the five wettest winters on that list came in El Niño years. The wettest of all, 34.76 inches in 2009 to 2010, came in an El Niño winter that did not reach the very strong level, and the second, 34.34 inches in 1990 to 1991, came in a year with no El Niño at all, so a super El Niño is not the only way to get a soaked winter.
| Winter type | Wet winters | Average days with 1 inch or more |
|---|---|---|
| Super El Niño (index 2.0 or more) | 2 of 3 | 8.3 |
| El Niño of any strength | 16 of 25 | 6.5 |
| Neither El Niño nor La Niña | 12 of 25 | 4.5 |
| La Niña | 5 of 26 | 3.4 |
A wet winter here has more than 14.59 inches of rain from December through February, more than 20 of the 30 winters from 1991 to 2020 had.
Colder? Not in the strongest ones
The three super El Niño winters averaged 56.2°F at the airport, about the same as a normal winter, and had fewer freezing nights: 2.3 on average against 4.9, with none at 25°F or colder and a coldest night of 29°F on January 17, 1983. The rain still kept plenty of days gray and cool, and 1982 to 1983 had 35 days that stayed below 60°F.
Strong El Niño winters have still brought hard cold. The low reached 21°F on January 13, 1973 and 24°F on January 16, 2024, and across all 25 El Niño winters since 1950 the airport averaged 8.4 freezing nights, against 9.2 in the other 51 winters. A big El Niño has leaned mild here, but it has not ruled out a freeze. For the next cool snap, our next cold front page keeps a dated forecast. The clocks went back an hour on Sunday, November 1, so these gray weeks also get dark earlier, and our page on when the clocks change in 2026 has the New Orleans sunset times.
What NOAA’s forecasters say about this winter
On October 8, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with better than an 83 percent chance, and put the chance of a historic event for October to December, stronger than any since 1950, at 83 percent. The July to September value of the Oceanic Niño Index, 2.16, is the highest for those months since the index begins in 1950, ahead of 1.79 in 1997.
CPC’s October 15 outlook favors a wetter than normal December through February for New Orleans, at 50 to 70 percent, with the line between those two bands running through the metro area on its map, and near normal temperatures. It calls above normal rain in the Southeast one of the most reliable signals of El Niño. In its October 8 discussion CPC also says an event this large makes the usual El Niño impacts more likely without making them certain, which is why this page says what past winters did rather than what this one will do. CPC’s next ENSO discussion comes out November 12 and its next seasonal outlook November 19.
Late in October, weather forecasters and news reports began watching for a possible early disruption of the polar vortex, the ring of cold winds high over the Arctic, in mid November. CPC’s October outlook noted that El Niño and the westerly phase of a pattern of winds high over the tropics, both expected all winter, usually keep the vortex stronger and more stable, which slightly lowers the odds of a sudden break. When one does happen, any cold at ground level comes days to weeks later and does not always reach the Gulf Coast, so it is worth watching rather than planning around.
Storms come with the rain
An active southern storm track can bring severe weather too. On February 23, 2016, during the last super El Niño, the National Weather Service in New Orleans confirmed 13 tornadoes, rated EF0 to EF3, across southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi, the most significant of them in the River Parishes between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Keep weather alerts on your phone, and give yourself extra time on days with heavy rain in the forecast, when low streets can flood.
A warm, dry hour in a gray week
A private infrared sauna is a warm, dry break in a wet week, and the room at NOLA Chill, 6045 Magazine Street in Uptown New Orleans, holds one to four people. It is set to about 175 F (80 C), with the room air usually in the 150s, and staff can set it lower if you ask. It is $30 for 30 minutes or $40 for 45 minutes for one person, $48 or $64 for two, $63 or $72 for three and $72 or $80 for four, with no membership needed. Our cold or rainy day sauna guide covers the visit, and the infrared sauna page has the room details.
If you would rather stay clothed, hydromassage is 30 minutes of warm water pressure under a dry bed surface for $30, and NuCalm is a 30-minute guided relaxation session for $40. Prices for every service are on the pricing page.
Coming often costs less with a package. Five 30-minute sauna visits are $125 and ten are $200, one pack visit covers one or two people, so two friends sharing the 10-visit pack pay $10 each a visit, and packages can be shared or split and last 12 months. The Chill membership is $85 a month for 2 sessions, the 30-minute sauna among them, with 20% off anything extra. Our guide to sharing a sauna with a friend shows how that works, and you can pay after your visit.
NOLA Chill is open 7 days: Mon to Fri 9am to 7pm, Sat 9am to 4pm, Sun 10am to 3pm, with off-street parking in front of the studio.
Heat is not right for everyone. If you are pregnant, have a heart or blood pressure condition, or take medication that affects how you handle heat, check with your healthcare professional first. If you have a fever or are getting over the flu, our page on using a sauna when you are sick covers when to wait, and the flu season page tracks what is going around New Orleans each week.
How we counted
Rain and temperatures are NOAA daily observations for New Orleans International Airport, station USW00012916, read through the Applied Climate Information System for December 1 through the end of February in each of the 76 winters from 1950 to 1951 through 2025 to 2026. El Niño strength is NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index for December to February: 2.0 or more is very strong, the level forecasters call a super El Niño, 1.5 to 1.9 is strong, and 0.5 or more counts as El Niño. CPC now also uses a relative version of the index in its forecasts, so the two scales can differ slightly. We re-read every source and recounted the records on October 29, 2026. The heat side of the year is in our New Orleans heat and recovery index.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion, October 8, 2026
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlook discussion, October 15, 2026
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Oceanic Niño Index
- NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1991 to 2020 climate normals
- National Weather Service New Orleans, February 23, 2016 severe weather
Frequently asked questions
Is 2026 a super El Niño?
It is on track to be one. On October 8, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with better than an 83 percent chance, and the July to September Oceanic Niño Index of 2.16 is the highest for those months since 1950. The December to February index that sets the final rating comes in early 2027.
Will New Orleans have a wet winter in 2026 to 2027?
No one knows for sure. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives New Orleans a 50 to 70 percent chance of a wetter than normal December through February in its October 15, 2026 outlook, and two of the last three super El Niño winters were among the five wettest at the airport since 1950.
Does El Niño mean a colder winter in New Orleans?
Not in the strongest ones. The three super El Niño winters averaged about normal temperatures at the airport and had 2.3 freezing nights on average against a normal 4.9. Strong El Niño winters have still brought hard cold, such as 21°F on January 13, 1973.
What is a super El Niño?
It is the name forecasters and news reports use for the strongest El Niño events, such as 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center calls them very strong, and on October 8, 2026 it put the chance that this one is a historic event for October to December at 83 percent.
Will it rain on Mardi Gras 2027?
It is too early to know. Mardi Gras is Tuesday, February 9, 2027. At the airport, 13 of the 77 Mardi Gras days from 1950 to 2026 had a tenth of an inch of rain or more, and so did 4 of the 25 in El Niño winters. Mardi Gras 2016, in the last super El Niño, was dry, with a high of 59°F.
Where can I warm up on a rainy day in New Orleans?
The private infrared sauna at NOLA Chill, 6045 Magazine Street, is $30 for 30 minutes or $40 for 45 minutes for one person and $48 or $64 for two, with no membership needed. NOLA Chill is open 7 days: Mon to Fri 9am to 7pm, Sat 9am to 4pm, Sun 10am to 3pm.